Our Methodology

How we model your resilience

A scientific and systemic approach to connect your business model to the real world

Exogenous Engine

Exogenous Dynamic Engine

The exogenous engine contains all dimensions of the world (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal). Each dimension is broken down into factors, broken down into variables, themselves broken down into sourced data sets. In total, over 1 million data points connected in a system. These data are interconnected by default, to integrate cascade effects and blind spots.

For each client, the engine adjusts and selects the variables that interact directly with their business model.

All our datasets are linked together and projected into the future according to their possible variations. These variations constitute risks and opportunities for the company. Our exogenous engine allows modeling an exhaustive system, taking into account feedback loops, over-influences or compensating effects.

When a dataset does not exist, for example very local data or data related to an exogenous factor specific to a sector of activity, we document it from recognized sources (agency reports, sector studies, specialized publications, white papers).

Origin, source and traceability of data

Origin, source and traceability of real data: INSEE, Our World in Data, World Bank, OECD, Eurostat, IMF, UN Data…

When a dataset does not exist, we document it from recognized sources (agency reports, sector studies, specialized publications, white papers).

Endogenous Engine

Endogenous Dynamic Engine

The endogenous engine links together the components of each client's business model according to 4 pillars: value proposition, value architecture, financial impact and ESG impact.

More precisely, the value proposition (who I sell to, what, how much I sell, why customers buy, etc.) and the value architecture (how I manufacture, what I need to manufacture, where I manufacture, with whom, etc.) are the descriptions of the business model. Financial and extra-financial impacts are in a way the outputs of these strategic decisions. They are therefore directly linked to the first two dimensions, even without external factors.

It is during the setup with the client that the engine is customized and connected to the exogenous engine.

Value proposition

Who I sell to, what, how much I sell, why customers buy

Value architecture

How I manufacture, what I need, where I manufacture, with whom

Financial impact

Direct financial results of strategic decisions

ESG impact

Extra-financial impacts and sustainability

Methodological foundation

The methodological foundation is based on the business model concept described in the book 'Odyssey 3.14 Reinventing Business Model', from HEC.

Influence Engine

Influence Engine & Scenarios

We use data engineering, numerical simulation, neural modeling and feedback loop engineering techniques for the calculations of our influence calculation engine.

Financial effects calculations

Our engine allows determining the quantitative weight of any world variation on any business model component at any time. These weights are calculated in real time and constantly vary. They are used to calculate financial effects. These calculations are automated and subject to continuous consistency checks (back-modeling on historical results).

Outside-proof & future-proof calculations

The engine is connected in both directions (exogenous <-> endogenous) and can calculate how internal (hypothetical) variations would absorb part of the dependencies or how financial or ESG results would be affected.

World variations monitoring

We have integrated an active monitoring system, capable of instantly integrating emerging signals. When a signal becomes repetitive, it enters the simulation before its actual effect (addition of variations) and we alert you.

Scenarios

We integrate the main scenarios from scientific and economic research work: ADEME, IPCC, RTE, OECD, UN, World Bank, Carbon 4 IF Initiative... We also create custom scenarios, by generating isolated or combined disruptions.

These scenarios are offered to clients in a personalized way, based on the influence weights observed in their complete engine (exogenous + endogenous). The client can also invent shocks, test disruptions by forcing a projection on any exogenous data on a time scale, or by creating their own prospective scenario (global backdrop at +30 years) thanks to our dedicated feature.

Ready to navigate uncertainty

Request a personalized demonstration and discover how Quiddity can strengthen your company's resilience against real-world shocks.